Since the first cases of wolf predation on domestic herds recorded in 1993, the number of attacks and of victims has increased in correlation with the expansion of the territory occupied by wolves.
At the scale of a territory, the colonization by wolves shows through an important number of attacks and of direct and indirect victims during the first years and then through a relative decrease following the implementation of protection means. In the "old" zones of permanent presence, the annual number of wolf attacks becomes stable; in average, it amounts to 40.
Report on attacks, victims and sums of indemnification by "département" since 2004:
Monthly spreading out of the attacks:
Considering the territories colonized by wolves and the predominance of breeding systems with presence in the mountain summer pastures, most of the attacks take place between June and October. In Alpes du Sud, notably in Alpes-Maritimes, this tendency is less significant as many herds graze 11 to 12 months a year.
Evolution of the attacks in wolves’ massifs:
To analyze the evolution of the attacks indemnified in a biological way, it is interesting to demarcate geographical massifs occupied by the wolf.
The following map shows those massifs. Their borders have been drawn on topographical bases. Each massif include a ZPP and is bigger than packs’ territory. For an easy reading, the massifs are called with the name of the ZPP they include.
The attacks of the whole period 1994-2008 have been agglomerated by massif and have been drawn on a diagram with their occurrence’s date during the year (grouping by fortnights).
Three typical profiles result from the previous representation and allow to group the massifs in three classes:
class 1: the attacks are spread all along the year, without a well-characterized peak, with a high level in the end of autumn and a low level in the end of winter-beginning of spring;
class 2: the attacks are spread all along the year with a peak from the beginning of summer to the autumn;
class 3: the attacks are concentrated in the summer period and the beginning of autumn.
For the following tables and graphs, the colours mean:
< 10 % of the maximum
< 33 % of the maximum
< 66 % of the maximum
> 66 % of the maximum
Grouping datas for each class allows to present on graphs the monthly dispersion of the attacks:
This profile corresponds to three massifs: Cheiron-Estéron, Canjuers and Vésubie-Tinée.
This profile corresponds to five massifs: Grand Coyer, Vésubie-Roya, Moyenne Tinée, Haute Tinée and Monges.
This profile corresponds to sixteen massifs: Parpaillon-Ubaye, Bauges, Bornes, Jocou-Durbon, Thabor-Galibier, Taillefer, Clarée, Vercors-Hauts Plateaux, Tarentaise, Trois Évêchés-Ubaye, Vercors Ouest, Haute-Maurienne, Bachelard-Haut Verdon, Béal-Traversier, Belledonne and Queyras.
The risk of predation can be explained partly by the duration of grazing :
class 1: the attacks are on the lowest level from the end of winter to the beginning of spring when the stocks are in sheepfold for the birth of lambs and are so less exposed to predation;
class 2: some stocks are outside all along the year ; from spring to autums, the number of stocks grazing get higher;
class 3: areas where the stocks are exposed predominantly during mountain summer pasture.
This classification corresponds to a north-south gradient corresponding to the differences of grazing durations:
Maps of communal report of indemnified attacks for the wolf: